Private property prices will see slower growth in the first quarter of this year, amid the current upheaval in global financial markets and a possible US recession.

That is according to property consultants who said prices will be supported by rentals which will continue to climb higher this year.

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There has been frenzied buying and selling in the financial markets, but according to consultants, that is not likely to be replicated in the property sector.

“What the uncertainty is doing is that it’s keeping speculative investors at bay and injecting realism into the minds of potential genuine purchasers. So, we’re unlikely to see the frenzied level of buying as we’ve seen in the first half of last year. So the net result is likely to keep price growth in check moving forward,” said Tay Huey Ying, Research & Consultancy Director of Colliers International.

According to the latest numbers from the URA, the number of private residential properties transacted fell to 328 in December, after hitting a high of 1,800 units in August last year.

“We suspect there will be more choices available for new projects from second half of February right up to the March and April period. That’s when I think we’ll see continued demand spillover into the market, particularly onto the mass as well as mid-end projects,” said Donald Han, MD of Cushman & Wakefield.

While that demand is expected to support prices in the mass market segment, property consultants said the current market turmoil may impact on the high-end segment.

Still, they believe that prices will hold up because of strong rentals.

“If you look at last year, rentals are expected to rise by as much as 40%. This year, we expect rents to go up by at least about 15-20 percent, so that would potentially provide a higher yield in terms of investing in Singapore residential property market,” said Han.

Private property prices were up by about 30% last year. - CNA /ls

Source : Channel NewsAsia - 24 Jan 2008

The government will continue to monitor the residential property market in a bid to ensure that prices remain stable, according to National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan (Picture).

He was responding to questions from reporters on Wednesday for his outlook for the property sector in 2008.

He noted that the government had taken measures last year to cool the sector, but also said that there are external factors at play in 2008.

Mr Mah said: “It’s not my job, neither is it my ability to predict prices. All I can say is that we monitor the price situation very carefully and over the past months, the government has taken several steps to try to cool down the strong speculative fervour that was taking place earlier in the year. Those are the internal factors.

“As you know, there are also many external factors that could affect property prices. Those are external factors which are beyond our control, so we don’t really know how the sub-prime crisis is going to pan out. We don’t know what’s going to happen to the American economy this year.

“What we do know is for Singapore and we are optimistic that we will continue to do well. It’s up to us to keep a close eye on the market to ensure prices remain stable and move in tandem with the economy.” - CNA/so

Source : Channel NewsAsia - 2 Jan 2008

SINGAPORE’S booming housing market is the world’s hottest this year, with local home prices recording the fastest increase.

Residential property prices in the Republic surged 24.3 per cent, after adjustments for inflation, ahead of other bullish markets such as Shanghai in China and Bulgaria, said property investment research house Global Property Guide.

In a report published online, the firm said Singapore’s strong performance, like those of Japan and South Korea, was due to robust economic growth.

The survey was compiled using the latest official data from 42 countries, though other statistics were used for a few markets, such as Japan and the Philippines, where such figures were not available.

The latest Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) numbers used in the survey show that Singapore home prices registered a 27.6 per cent annual jump at the end of September, significantly higher than the 7.6 per cent posted a year ago.

This nominal, non-inflation adjusted figure was below the 30.6 per cent recorded by Bulgaria in September and the 27.9 per cent recorded by Shanghai in October.

But in real terms, after adjustments for low inflation of only 2.66 per cent, the Republic leapfrogged these two markets to reach the top spot, said the report.

Singapore’s strong showing underscored a more general recovery in Asia, where several markets gained momentum in the first three quarters of the year.

Global Property said this reflected, to some extent, continued recovery from the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

In contrast, the United States housing market crashed due to the sub-prime mortgage crisis, while high interest rates were behind the slowdown in European house prices.

‘In Europe, most countries registered unimpressive year-on-year house price changes in 2007, aside from Norway and Estonia,’ the report said.

Looking to the year ahead, Global Property said property prices in much of Asia are still undervalued compared with pre-Asian crisis levels, despite strong increases this year.

It expects potential improvement in rentals in Singapore.

‘We believe gross rental yields are now too low, at 2 to 3 per cent.

‘Nevertheless, Singapore is attracting and admitting more foreign-born workers - which is positive for prices,’ it said.

Elsewhere in the region, Global Property also recommended Cambodia, Thailand, Japan, Australia and New Zealand to property investors.

It, however, cautioned against investing in Europe, apart from a handful of Eastern European states, because of high valuations after a long period of price appreciation.

In the Middle East, it found Egypt attractive for its high rental yields and low taxes, but warned of a possible oversupply in Dubai as more properties come on stream over the next two years.

STRONG GAINS

While Singapore ranks behind Bulgaria and Shanghai in nominal house price growth, the Republic is the world’s best performer in real terms, given its low inflation rate of only 2.66 per cent, says Global Property Guide.

Source : Straits Times - 24 Dec 2007

Real estate investors can look to Singapore for low risk and stable rewards, according to LaSalle Investment Management.

With consumption on the increase, LaSalle said the retail market will provide good stable returns.

It expects that office rentals are expected to slow down in the coming year but said that residential properties will continue to grow as the number of expatriates increases.

Besides, with the city-state’s well-diversified economy, it said that key sectors such as office, residential, hotel and retail will continue to grow.

David Edwards, Regional Director of LaSalle Investment Management, said: “Singapore’s retail market provides good solid stable returns (and) consumption is up. Confidence is strong and we believe those returns are sustainable.”

The jump in office rentals though, is expected to moderate to 25 per cent in 2008, down from the 70 per cent jump this year.

Different sectors will naturally see different returns.

“If you’re looking for core style then your requirements are very different. If you are more opportunistic, I think the range of opportunities is much broader. There’s opportunity in the office market, in residential, in the hotel and hospitality area,” said Edwards.

LaSalle noted that one trend going forward is the interest in buildings and properties equipped with green and sustainable technologies.

It added that landlords and investors can start factoring in efficient technologies in their long term plans as there will be a demand for these in five to 15 years.

There’s also growing demand in the more immediate term for warehousing facilities, amid rising trade in the region.

“I think one of the things we will and we are tracking is the growth in demand for more modern warehousing facilities that enable more efficient handling of goods, more efficient supply chain management going forward. And that’s a trend that is coming through in Asia-Pacific as a whole and we see that being one of the things in Singapore in the next three to five years,” said Edwards.

Source : ChannelNewsAsia - 14 Dec 2007

Developers, consultants predict 10-20% hikes for this segment in 2008, high-end gains seen tapering to 0-10%

As the year draws to a close, developers and property consultants are cautiously optimistic about prospects for the Singapore property market next year despite the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and rising oil prices.

For the residential sector, they expect the action to be concentrated in the mass market next year, after the stellar increases in high-end home prices this year.

They also generally expect the authorities to adopt a more measured approach to the Government Land Sales programme in the first half of next year, given the relatively thin bidding seen for most state sites recently.

CB Richard Ellis chairman (Asia) Willy Shee predicts high-end home prices will likely remain more or less at current levels next year - after a nearly 50 per cent price gain this year - on the back of new supply coming into the market. Prices of mass-market private homes are likely to appreciate 10 to 15 per cent in 2008, after rising about 25 per cent this year, he added. ‘I think building costs have already gone up over 30 per cent so far this year,’ he says.

Similarly, Ho Bee Investment executive director Ong Chong Hua says: ‘We cannot see the same magnitude of price growth in 2008 that we’ve seen in the past two years. It’s not sustainable. We’ll see more steady growth next year.’

Overseas Union Enterprise chief executive officer Thio Gim Hock says: ‘High-end prices will at least maintain or go up by 5 to 10 per cent, while the mass market will rise between 10 and 20 per cent in 2008.

‘By next year, sub-prime will be behind us and confidence will recover again.’

Mr Ong predicts a 10 per cent price gain for both upmarket and mass-market homes next year. ‘The increase in mass market home prices will be very measured until the sub-prime cloud clears,’ he says.

Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng expects the fate of the high-end market to be determined by foreign investors (and their reading of the global economic outlook) as well as the extent to which those who’ve sold their prime district homes through en bloc sales buy replacement homes in the high-end of the market.

Hong Leong Group executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng says: ‘Even in a period of consolidation, the market will come back. The fundamentals of real estate in Singapore are still very good. There’s still upside for mid-range home prices, which are still below their peaks.’

Knight Frank’s Mr Tan said: ‘Fundamentally, Singapore is in a very sound position, property-wise. But what will determine the state of the market will be external events, especially sub-prime, oil prices and the US economy. If the external forces turn out to be quite benign, the Singapore property market recovery will continue. But if the external forces turn out to be malignant, then all bets are off.’

Mr Kwek stresses that because developers have enjoyed good profit margins over the past three to four years, they are now in a strong financial position and can afford to take longer to sell their projects.

After the current lull, Knight Frank’s Mr Tan expects developers to resume launches next year when the market’s direction becomes clearer. ‘They’re likely to start launching closer to Budget time, when the Government gives its official reading of the Singapore economy,’ he says.

Chesterton International’s head of research and consultancy, Colin Tan, reckons that high-end residential property will weather any market downturn better than the mass market, as luxury homes typically offer a more resilient long-term investment proposition because of their superior location. ‘Someone who buys a high-end home can always rent it out, even if he has to accept a lower rent,’ he says.

Market expectations have been running so high that the authorities will step up the Government Land Sales Programme to stem rising property prices and rents. However, some property players suggest the uncertainty may make the authorities think again. ‘Supply will continue to be released mostly through the reserve list, but some new housing sites in the city may be introduced in the confirmed list, as developing the Marina Bay area and rejuvenating the existing CBD seem to be a priority,’ Knight Frank’s Mr Tan suggests.

At Ho Bee, Mr Ong says that recent bidding at state tenders shows ‘developers are re-calculating the risk premium because of uncertainty created by sub-prime’.

‘(The) government will be careful about the confirmed list,’ he says.

Source : Business Times - 5 Dec 2007

They’re mum on whether it’s a good time to buy, but agree Singapore fundamentals are pretty robust.

PROPERTY: boom or bust? This was the intriguing question to which a capacity turnout of about 170 investors recently sought answers, at a dinner hosted by financial advisory firm ipac. The good news is that the experts at the evening’s panel do not foresee a bubble in the offing, based on three presentations - albeit with some concern expressed by Jones Lang LaSalle’s head of research, Chua Yang Liang.

The not-so-good news is that the experts shied away from the multi-million-dollar question of whether this was a good time to buy. What is more, over the past weekend, the surprise news of a halt to the popular deferred payment scheme for uncompleted properties appears to have cast a cloud over residential property’s upward trajectory.

In a deferred payment scheme, developers effectively extend free financing to buyers of uncompleted properties. Buyers need only pay an initial deposit of 10 to 20 per cent, with the balance due when the property is completed in a couple of years.

Thanks to this form of free credit, a sizeable number of speculators have rushed in to new home launches, as a rising market gives them a window to sell their units at a substantial profit in a short period.

The base case of one panellist, HSBC senior Asian economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde, is that there are few obvious triggers for a sharp deceleration in prices.

‘If we’re in a bubble, we’re in the early stages. The fundamentals are pretty robust. The mass market is just starting to see a recovery and that’s probably the safest area for investment,’ he told the audience. The supportive factors include the expected growth in employment and personal incomes.

The cost of servicing mortgage debt also remains relatively low at just about 14 per cent of household income, compared to 50 per cent in mature markets like London.

Contacted yesterday, he said: ‘I think the measure (to halt deferred pricing) will take a little bit of froth out of the market, but with employment booming, wages soaring and the real mortgage rate at its lowest level since 1990, the outlook still looks very promising.

‘We should also bear in mind that valuations are still way below the levels of the previous boom. When adjusted for the growth in incomes, the private residential property price index is little more than half of what it was in 1996.’

At the discussion, Dr Chua of JLL expressed concern over the price gap between new and resale homes in the prime districts. The gap has widened sharply this year, reaching a peak of 60 per cent, against a medium to long-term premium gap of 32 to 38 per cent. The resale market, he says, reflects true demand better, as deferred payment schemes in the new home market have inflated prices.

In terms of rental yields, rentals in the luxury prime segment have edged below the 10-year Singapore bond yield. The clampdown on deferred payment schemes should remove the speculative froth, he says. ‘Generally prices will take a breather in the next two to three years with the sheer volume of (new) stocks coming on stream. We expect some kind of softening, not a correction, but a softening.’

Sing Tien Foo, deputy head of the National University of Singapore’s department of real estate, pointed to property’s ability to help diversify a portfolio, thanks to a low correlation with stocks and bonds.

Prof Sing’s research has shown that property provided a positive hedge against inflation between 1992 and 2007, a period in which stocks and bonds did not provide such a hedge.

While all types of property offered a more-than perfect hedge against inflation, the best hedge was that offered by detached housing, followed by semi-detached homes.

Meanwhile, advisers are sounding caution. Roy Varghese of ipac says: ‘If you’re looking to invest, be very careful. You need to have an investment objective and that includes looking into the IRR (internal rate of return). You should be able to hold it for seven to 10 years. If you bought your property at a peak, your IRR will be low.’

Joseph Chong of New Independent expects the price gap between new uncompleted homes and resale homes to narrow. ‘The market should see a more moderate ascent in prices - instead of 20 per cent, perhaps 10 per cent in line with nominal GDP.

‘You should see more upside…But if your portfolio is not big enough, I don’t think you should bet on investment property in Singapore.’

Those with modest resources are better off investing in a global property fund or Reit, he adds.

Analysts, however, remained mostly sanguine over the medium-term outlook. Merrill Lynch’s property team wrote in a paper market that sentiment will be weak over one to two months. ‘However, we are of the view that genuine buyers do not buy houses on innovative purchase schemes by developers alone. We believe the more important considerations will be where Singapore is heading, will they be able to keep their jobs or businesses and will their salaries/profits increase.’

The firm’s economics team recently wrote that Asian property prices were not high relative to per-capita income, and advances have been modest compared to those in the UK, the US and Australia. The drivers include low real interest rates and positive demographics.

Citigroup analyst Wendy Koh said that while sentiment will weaken in the short term, residential prices are supported by strong fundamentals. In a note on Friday, she said: ‘We believe the current price increase is well supported by strong fundamentals such as the extremely tight physical supply and economic and wage growth.

‘We maintain our view that rental rates for residential units will continue to climb on the back of the relative net increase in housing stock due to low completion and relatively high demolition due to en blocs. The rise in rental rates will likely continue to support further price appreciation.’

Source : Business Times - 31 Oct 2007

AT A Singapore Economic Policy Forum organised by the Department of Economics of the National University of Singapore (NUS) on Oct 18, I presented a paper with the title, ‘Singapore’s property market and the macroeconomy’. This was reported in The Straits Times the following day under the headline, ‘No bubble in property market: NUS study’.

The title of the report may have created the misperception that current increases in property prices are all fundamental and policy intervention is not necessary. Some clarification is necessary with regard to the findings of the research and its policy implications.

In our analysis, the long-run demand for housing is determined by the growth of resident population, foreign population, per-capita disposable income, per-capita CPF balances (a proxy for financial wealth) and an adjustment factor to account for what is known as the user cost of housing. If the housing stock grows in line with the growth of the long-run demand, house prices should stay the same in the long run.

The current surge in house prices is largely a result of the housing shortage that was caused by the crash of the price bubble in 1996 and the prolonged slump in the property sector. Large imbalances in demand and supply create conditions for bubbles and subsequent crashes.

Based on data available up to the second quarter of this year, our model predicted that house prices should increase by 18 per cent in 2007 purely due to the fundamental demand-supply imbalance. We know that house prices by now have increased well above this rate. In the third quarter of this year the average price level had gone up by at least 27 per cent over the third quarter of 2006. Price persistence (panic buying when prices rise and waiting when prices fall) and speculation are the key drivers of the short-run price acceleration.

Although price bubbles are usually attributed to speculation, large gyrations in property prices are unhealthy for the economy. As housing supply cannot keep pace with demand because of construction delays and land scarcity, demand-management policies, especially with respect to investment demand, have to be in place.

Author: Associate Prof Tilak Abeysinghe

Source : Straits Times - 23 October 2007

PROPERTY price booms and busts make Singapore’s economic growth more vulnerable to volatile factors and should be prevented, an economist at a think-tank said here yesterday.

While the impact of a spike in property prices on overall GDP growth is ‘quite subdued’, a property price bubble causes private consumption expenditure to shrink, making the economy more dependent on foreign demand and business spending which are much more volatile, said Tilak Abeysinghe.

The deputy director of the Singapore Centre for Applied and Policy Economics (Scape) at the National University of Singapore, was speaking at the inaugural Singapore Economic Policy Conference organised by Scape at Four Seasons Hotel.

His team’s research found that while higher property prices spur construction investment, an accompanying dip in private consumption means overall economic growth does not change much as a direct result of property price inflation.

But the overall effect is still undesirable as it makes the economy far more dependent on business spending and foreign demand for its exports, both of which are more volatile than domestic consumption, he said.

The consumption expenditure share of Singapore’s GDP has fallen from more than two-thirds in 1997 to about 40 per cent today. ‘If consumption expenditure in Singapore falls further, GDP growth will be very vulnerable to external demand and investment demand,’ he said.

Research found that in contrast with economies such as the US, higher housing prices here do not seem to encourage more personal spending.

In Singapore, ‘housing wealth is relatively illiquid,’ he said. ‘You just can’t sell your house and move to a suburban house.’ This means the ‘wealth effect’ of housing price inflation seen in countries such as the US - when people spend more as the value of their homes rise - is much less noticeable in Singapore.

Also, ‘when housing prices go up, mortgage payments also increase, so people have less to spend on consumption,’ he said.

He believes policymakers here should ‘do their best’ to prevent a property price bubble because of its effect on private consumption spending and its tendency to widen the income gap between the rich and poor.

‘It should be possible’ to prevent another bubble from building by identifying the main cause of the recent run-up in property prices - likely to be people buying properties for investment rather than owner-occupiers - and introducing measures to dampen demand from this source, he said.

But he also cautioned against flooding the market with a vast supply of new homes, which could trigger a price crash and set the conditions for a new bubble.

Source : Business Times - 19 Oct 2007

DESPITE Singapore’s red-hot property prices, no bubble is forming in the property market here, according to a study by National University of Singapore (NUS) economists.

In fact, the rise in home prices is below the market’s long-run ‘equilibrium’ level, based on factors such as income and property supply, preliminary findings of the ongoing study show.

In other words, the pace of housing price rises is still below the level that would be expected based on market fundamentals, according to the study conducted by a team led by Associate Professor Tilak Abeysinghe.

This is unlike the case in the early 1980s and mid-1990s, when property price inflation shot up above its long-term equilibrium levels, the study noted.

Early findings from the study, still a work-in-progress, was presented to a small audience at the Singapore Economic Policy conference yesterday.

House-price inflation is expected to hit 18 per cent this year, before easing to 13.7 per cent next year, and then to 3.2 per cent in 2009 and 3.4 per cent in 2010, the NUS team’s model predicted.

Factors used to determine the equilibrium price level include disposable income per person, housing stock and the new supply of property.

The study also found that it takes a long time for property price inflation to adjust to its long-run equilibrium.

And a rise in property price inflation would lead to a spike in construction investment a year or so down the road, but its effect fades after that.

The study concluded that price bubbles should be avoided, as they affect private consumption as well as income redistribution, among other things.

Prof Abeysinghe is the deputy director of the Singapore Centre for Applied and Policy Economics at the NUS, which organised yesterday’s meet.

The one-day conference also saw speakers examine issues ranging from fertility, migration and labour market trends, to CPF savings and the elderly.

The paper, entitled Singapore’s Property Market And The Macroeconomy, can be viewed at http://nt2.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/cent/ESU/conference.htm

Source : Straits Times - 19 Oct 2007

The wealthy have lost none of their appetite for property despite the market turmoil triggered by the sale of risky sub-prime mortgages in the US, according to some of the world’s top private bankers.

Clients of wealth managers are, however, on the lookout for the next big areas of growth and want products that will enable them to reduce their exposure to any one property or market.

‘We’re seeing heavy levels of investment in property in Hong Kong (and) throughout Asia,’ said Peter Flavel, global head of private banking at Standard Chartered. ‘You can’t get office space in Singapore, you can’t get it in Dubai.’

Speaking at the Reuters Wealth Management Summit, Mr Flavel said there was a ‘group of Asians that love real estate’ and that their ardour showed no sign of fading. ‘They’d see the situation in America as specific to America and the situation in the UK as specific to the UK,’ he added.

Samir Raslan, head of Citibank’s wealth management operations in central and eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, said his clients also remained alive to potential opportunities in world real estate markets.

‘We haven’t seen any change in our clients,’ he told the summit held at Reuters offices here.

Nicolas Cagi Nicolau, global head of structured product solutions at SG Private Banking, said demand so far in 2007 had been particularly strong.

In Ireland, where fortunes have been made on the back of the country’s decade-long property boom, a fast-cooling domestic market and recent global market turmoil may have had a short-term impact, but investors’ love of property is intact.

‘All that we may be seeing is that people are just waiting to see what may well happen either domestically or internationally, but the appetite for further investment is undoubtedly there,’ said Mark Cunningham, managing director of Bank of Ireland Private Banking.

He said his main problem was persuading Ireland’s growing ranks of self-made millionaires to diversify into assets other than real estate. ‘The first love has always been property and will continue to be property for a lot of these people.’ In Spain, which like Ireland is experiencing a rapid cooling in its property market, the wealthy remain committed to real estate, although not necessarily in their own country.

Daniel de Fernando, head of asset management and private banking at Spain’s BBVA , said a new product offering clients a chance to invest in the Mexican property market had proved particularly popular. ‘People are asking us for more ideas on that front,’ he said of a fund bought into by 60 people within two weeks of its launch at a minimum investment of 2.5 million euros (S$5.2 million) each.

In the Netherlands, property also continues to be popular, according to Bernard Coucke, deputy chief of private banking at ING Groep. ‘On the contrary, more and more programmes are being set up, not only in residential but also commercial. Why? Because, for instance in the Netherlands, demand is high . . . and I think it will continue to go up.’

For some rich investors, however, there is a growing belief that other assets can offer better returns.

‘I think that the appetite for real estate is decreasing a lot,’ Paolo Molesini, head of private banking at Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo said of a country where up until now the wealthy have held about 70 per cent of their assets in property. ‘Property costs a lot and gives you a very, very low revenue . . . There is no equilibrium from the price of the asset and the earnings that you can get out of it.’ Mr Molesini said his clients were looking to invest in foreign property, particularly in Germany, eastern Europe and Paris. — Reuters

Source : Business Times - 11 Oct 2007