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Archive for December 3rd, 2008

Property slump in China threatens global growth

Posted by luxuryasiahome on December 3, 2008

Building sector, the biggest driver of China’s growth, employs 77m people

House prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou are plunging, and the global economy may grind almost to a halt next year because of it.

Construction of homes, offices and factories fell at least 16.6 per cent in October after rising 32.5 per cent a year earlier, according to Macquarie Securities Ltd. That’s squeezing an economy already slowed by recessions in the US, Japan and Europe that have cut demand for exports. Building is the biggest driver of China’s expansion, contributing a quarter of fixed-asset investment and employing 77 million people.

The central bank cut its key interest rate by the most in 11 years last week and the government said ‘forceful’ measures were needed to arrest a faster-than-expected economic decline. Without more rate cuts and government spending, China is unlikely to contribute the 60 per cent of global growth Merrill Lynch forecasts for next year, further slowing the world economy.

‘China is now at the heart of the global slowdown,’ said Jim Walker, chief economist at Asianomics Ltd, an economic advisory firm in Hong Kong. ‘It means that global growth is probably going to be dragged down close to zero next year.’ Mr Walker, voted best regional economist in an Asiamoney magazine brokers’ poll for 11 years through 2004 when he worked for CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, estimates China will grow zero to 4 per cent next year, with a 30 per cent chance of a contraction.

In 2005, China vaulted past the UK to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, after expansion averaged 9.9 per cent annually for the previous 30 years. GDP has increased 69-fold since Deng Xiaoping began free market changes in 1978. China accounted for 27 per cent of global growth last year.

‘The real estate sector has seen a particularly pronounced slowdown,’ said Louis Kuijs, a senior economist at the World Bank in Beijing. ‘Real estate investment growth is now close to zero.’ China’s export orders and output shrank in November by the most since records began as the global financial crisis sapped demand for the nation’s toys, textiles and computers.

Exports and property together have contributed about half of the expansion in China’s GDP, estimates Shanghai-based Andy Xie, an independent analyst who was formerly Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist.

‘That growth is gone,’ he said. ‘Can the government make it up with something else? It’s going to be tough.’

Merrill’s forecast of 1.5 per cent global growth next year is based on an 8.6 per cent expansion in China. The prediction on Nov 21 came 12 days after China announced a 4 trillion yuan (S$888.6 billion) stimulus plan, mostly for public works projects.

The government is trying to limit fallout from the slowdown for fear that rising unemployment may lead to social unrest. Police and security guards last week attempted to break up protests by fired workers in Guangdong province.

A second stimulus package to boost consumption may be imminent, the Beijing-based Economic Observer reported on Nov 24. Measures being considered include raising income-tax thresholds, higher salaries for state workers and increased subsidies for low-income groups, the newspaper said, citing people involved in discussion of the plan.

Shanghai house prices fell 19.5 per cent in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to real estate broker Savills. Declines in apartment values are accelerating in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, two of the fastest growing cities in Guangdong province, which produces 30 per cent of China’s exports.

Construction will contract 30 per cent next year after expanding 9 per cent in the first three quarters of 2008, according to Macquarie Securities.

‘The global financial crisis won’t get China to zero per cent growth and neither will recession in developed economies,’ said Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. ‘If there’s a collapse in the property market that might do the job.’

Source : Business Times – 3 Dec 2008

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CapitaLand to cut staff salaries between 3-20%

Posted by luxuryasiahome on December 3, 2008

Southeast Asia’s largest developer, CapitaLand, said on Wednesday it will cut staff pay between 3 to 20 per cent in light of a slowing domestic economy.

CapitaLand said in a statement that the firm-wide measures will affect mostly management and executive level employees, with its chief executive, Liew Mun Leong, bearing the maximum cut of 20 per cent.

The cuts will take effect in January 2009.

‘We felt that the proactive measures demonstrate the Group’s disciplined capital management and prudence during these global financial and economic uncertainties,’ Mr Liew said.

Some Singapore firms have started laying off staff and cutting salaries in light of the tough economic conditions.

State investor Temasek Holdings said last month it will cut staff pay between 15 to 25 per cent while DBS Group and Neptune Orient Lines said they will be cutting jobs.

Source : Business Times – 3 Dec 2008

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CapitaLand executives take pay cuts of 3-20% amid economic gloom

Posted by luxuryasiahome on December 3, 2008

Property developer CapitaLand said on Tuesday it will not be laying off staff for now.

Instead, executive-level staff will take pay cuts of between three and 20 per cent as part of the company’s cost management measures.

In a statement, CapitaLand said the cuts are due to the deteriorating global financial environment and economic uncertainties.

President and CEO Liew Mun Leong will bear the maximum salary reduction of 20 per cent.

According to CapitaLand’s annual report, Mr Liew earned S$1.15 million in base salary in 2007, and was paid S$5.35 million in bonuses.

All salary reductions will take effect in January 2009.

CapitaLand said the salary reduction exercise is one of several cost management measures it has taken.

In the last crisis from 2001 to 2003, CapitaLand had also implemented a salary freeze for management and staff.

Management subsequently took a significant pay cut when the recessionary environment persisted.

Despite the latest pay cuts, CapitaLand said it will continue its training and development efforts and review its business operations for future growth opportunities.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 3 Dec 2008

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When times are bad, prepare for good times

Posted by luxuryasiahome on December 3, 2008

Layoffs are morally wrong, says CapitaLand boss Liew Mun Leong

HE HAS vowed to shave costs rather than jobs. And the man twice voted CEO of the year is putting his money where his mouth is.

Starting next month, Mr Liew Mun Leong will take the deepest pay cut of 20 per cent as president and chief executive officer of property and hospitality giant CapitaLand Group. Last year, he earned $6.49 million, mostly in bonuses.

The company-wide salary reduction exercise of 3 to 20 per cent will affect mainly management and executives. Non-executives, typically earning below $2,000, will be spared.

This is the same thing which happened at CapitaLand during the past two recessions in 1997 and 2001, when Mr Liew also implemented a salary freeze and led management in taking a ’significant pay cut’. No one was laid off then.

The 62-year-old CEO notes recent retrenchments here and decries them as ‘morally wrong’. He feels ‘very sorry’ for those asked to go.

‘When someone is retrenched, they lose their livelihood, their ability to support family, send children to school, pay their mortgages. There’s lots of suffering,’ he says.

It rekindles memories of how his late father Liew Luen Pong was laid off when the British began pulling out of Singapore in 1963.

The young Mun Leong was then 17 and doing his O levels at Queenstown Technical Secondary. He and his three siblings, his housewife mother and grandmother depended completely on his father, who earned $100 a month as a lathe machinist for a contracting firm working on the British bases.

Home was a rented room in a terrace house in Serangoon, where seven of them crammed into a single bedroom. After his father got fired, he remembers how worried they all were. ‘No work, no money,’ he sums up grimly.

‘I feel it more because I went through this myself. Maybe that’s the difference between a CEO who has suffered through this and someone who hasn’t. I’m from the proletariat,’ he says, not without pride.

For him, salary cuts for the majority are preferable to letting a minority go.

‘I believe in the theory of common happiness and common misery. In good times, give bonuses. In bad times, take a salary cut. If the cost savings of retrenching 100 out of 1,000 employees can be obtained by a wage cut, you achieve the same objective. It’s a better way of maintaining viability, even at the expense of more people. It saves some jobs.’

Besides, he believes retrenchments carry an insidious cost – in loyalty dividends. They also erode management’s moral standing.

‘From our perspective, loyalty between company and staff is a two-way street,’ he says. ‘Unless the company is loyal to its staff, they cannot be loyal to the company.

‘You cannot treat people as dispensable items – in good times, we want you; in bad times, we don’t want you. Our staff are an asset on our balance sheet and we must treat them as such.’

But many are asking: Does all this wage-trimming and cost-shearing apply to still-profitable companies? After all, CapitaLand recently posted a Q3 net profit of $419.4 million, although that was 25.6 per cent lower than last year.

To that, Mr Liew says: ‘Even if a company is profitable, cost management is important to set discipline. Not just to save money but to drive awareness that we need such discipline.’

The key, he says, is consistency in managing people, with the same rigour that companies manage their balance sheet. That means constantly pruning poor performers and foraging for fresh talent to plant.

‘During bad times and good times, I still hire and fire. During bad times, I will still hire those who are good. During good times, if you’re not doing well, I will still fire you,’ he says.

‘We manage our people the same way that we manage our balance sheet. If your balance sheet management is weak, in bad times, there’s no way to save it. It’s bo kiu (a goner in Hokkien).

‘The same goes for human resource management. Talent management is about being rigorous but not ruthless. You cannot manage with one style during good times and a different style during bad times. If you are consistent, good and bad times, people will stay with you.’

He says he learnt the importance of ‘disciplined aggression’ from the past two financial crises in 1997 and 2001.

When the former civil servant who was trained as a civil engineer took over Pidemco Land in 1996, it was a euphoric time. The Government was urging overseas investment. Other property players were bingeing on land in Thailand, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia. Tender prices shot sky-high.

‘We were invited to invest in glamorous projects which everyone was jumping into but we did not commit to any,’ he says. He did his sums, ignored taunts of timidity, sat it out and let the fever overtake others.

Then the Asian Financial Crisis came, prices tumbled and he charged in. In 1998, he picked up freehold Furama Hotel in Hong Kong’s Central, then a toxic asset nobody wanted to touch, for HK$1.8 billion (S$355 million), half what the owners had paid.

In 2001, he took over the derelict Raffles City Shanghai project, ‘a big hole in the ground’ abandoned by DBS Land. Today, the swanky mall is worth twice its investment cost of $300 million and commands one of the city’s stiffest rentals.

Crises, he learnt, are the best time to ‘build up your relative combat power’, provided you do not get swept away yourself. He arrived at this operating principle: ‘In good times, prepare for bad times. In bad times, prepare for good times.’

He observes: ‘The property sector is full of powerful personalities with large egos. They are super-charged when they see a good piece of land. They buy the land and hope the bank will lend them money.

‘I go the other way. I ask: ‘Can we afford it?’ People are often surprised at our growth rate. They think we’re very aggressive but we’re very disciplined with investment criteria, risk assessment, budget allocation.’

He still personally scrutinises investment papers, blueprints and design details of housing projects, down to the type of taps used. To conserve liquidity, his standard injunction to employees is: ‘If you invest $1, get me $2. If you want to invest $1 million, make sure you bring back $2 million.’

That has been realised. Over the past two years, the group has monetised more than $9 billion of assets, double the $4.4 billion it invested over the same period. ‘This $2-to-$1 formula actually worked,’ he says, sounding amazed.

In those better times, he was flayed for needlessly selling the family jewels, including Temasek Tower, Hitachi Tower, Chevron House and, before that, the Raffles Hotel. But it pared down CapitaLand’s debt-to-equity ratio, making it one of the lowest-geared property companies here just as the credit crunch hit.

Today, some think his nick-of-time divestment was wildly intuitive. But he confides: ‘In all honesty, I had no premonition the crisis could happen. I just thought it was a good time to raise some cheap money. It was a contrarian thing to do, which needed guts.’

As a result, CapitaLand is now sitting relatively pretty with a healthy balance sheet and cash hoard of almost $4 billion. He fears that many other companies, less disciplined in managing debt in good times, will soon be imperilled.

‘I read this article on how you’re damned when you’re due. When you’re due for refinancing, the bank will likely not extend your loan of $100 million and ask you to find your own money. If you can’t get it, you’re staring at foreclosure,’ he says.

‘It’s become a liquidity game. If you want to borrow money from a bank today, you must have more money than you want to borrow.

‘A lot of companies have not realised this yet. You need to look at surviving not just 2009 but the next three years – 2009, 2010, 2011 – unless the banking system recovers before that. During the Great Depression, the banking system was down for 10 years.’

The only upside, he says, is that since the global financial system collapsed so fast, it may revive just as quickly.

‘In the modern world, with the support of information technology, more sophisticated monitoring tools, better trained central bankers making a coordinated effort, things will recover hopefully faster.’

Meanwhile, quoting US economist Paul Romer, he says: ‘A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.’ He does not know when the meltdown will end, but he sure knows what to do with it.

Source : Straits Times – 3 Dec 2008

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Ex-school site attracts healthy interest

Posted by luxuryasiahome on December 3, 2008

THE former Seh Chuan High School has received healthy responses under the Ideas Tender Scheme by Singapore Land Authority (SLA).

Teo Cher Hian, SLA’s director of land operations (private), said yesterday: ‘The response to this property was encouraging. From our experience, we note that those in the education business take a longer-term view and react less to short-term fluctuations. This market sector has remained active with strong bids.’

The highest bid of $90,058 came from Dimensions Commercial School. Other bidders were existing SLA tenants such as Etonhouse International Holdings and Chatsworth International School.

Mr Teo added: ‘We believe that school operations are likely to take up new premises either for expansion or new operations in anticipation of demand when the economy improves.’

The site has a gross floor area of 4,222 sq metres and will be used for educational purposes. It was offered for use as a commercial or foreign system school in October, on a three-year tenancy with an option to renew.

The Ideas Tender Scheme was launched in 2005, and aims to recognise and encourage businessmen and entrepreneurs to pursue innovative ideas on the use of state properties. Between January and October this year, SLA has awarded 11 properties with education as one of the approved uses up about 50 per cent from the year-ago period.

The former Mee Toh School opens for tender under the Ideas Tender Scheme today.

Source : Business Times – 3 Dec 2008

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Koh Bros order book at $550m with LTA deal

Posted by luxuryasiahome on December 3, 2008

KOH Brothers Group’s order book has climbed to $549.7 million after it clinched a major contract, the company’s chief executive Francis Koh said yesterday.

The company, with French joint-venture partner Soletanche Bachy, recently won a $582 million deal from the Land Transport Authority (LTA) to build the Downtown Line’s Bugis interchange station and associated tunnels.

Koh Brothers owns 45 per cent of the JV and Soletanche Bachy the other 55 per cent. Construction is scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2009 and is expected to be completed in 2013.

It is the single largest contract ever won by Koh Brothers.

It is also the single biggest contract awarded so far for the $12 billion Downtown Line, which will open in stages between 2013 and 2016.

Koh Brothers’ current projects include the $166.9 million Common Services Tunnel at Marina Bay. It also completed work on the $226 million Marina Barrage in October.

The latest contract is not expected to have a material impact on the group’s performance for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2008.

‘We are confident our reputation and proven expertise will serve us well as we continue to bid for projects of higher value and deliver quality services,’ Mr Koh said.

The proposed tunnel under the latest contract runs under Rochor Road from Beach Road to Queens Street, crossing four road junctions.

Koh Brothers aims to minimise inconvenience to vehicular and pedestrian traffic during construction.

Koh Brothers stock shed half a cent yesterday to close at 9 cents.

Source : Business Times – 3 Dec 2008

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Asia will be first to resume growth

Posted by luxuryasiahome on December 3, 2008

As long as the banking systems of the major economies don’t freeze up, China will resume growth, writes Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew

AFTER the dramatic drops in the New York Stock Exchange following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, stock markets and property values in eastern Asia declined significantly. China’s Shanghai index has fallen about 70 per cent this year. Property prices have also dropped, varying in levels among different cities. Visiting Beijing and Shanghai in late October, I found political leaders and businessmen were apprehensive about the coal and iron ore stocks piling up at their wharves as export demands fell.

Asian banks have not been snagged by dealing in securitised derivatives they didn’t understand. Their bankers learnt their lessons from the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The fundamentals of eastern Asia’s economies are sound. With the exception of South Korea, eastern Asia’s central banks have substantial foreign currency reserves, limited leverage and low indebtedness, so their governments have the flexibility to use fiscal policies to promote growth and recovery.

China has the largest reserves, with about US$2 trillion – US$500 billion in US Treasuries and US$1.3 trillion invested in US assets. Interbank lending in China continues. However, China’s banks have become cautious and lend only to high-quality companies.

As long as the banking systems of the major economies don’t freeze up, eastern Asia, led by China, will resume growth earlier than other regions. On Nov 6, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast China’s growth at 9.7 per cent for 2008 and 8.5 per cent for 2009 (down from 11.9 per cent in 2007), and India’s at 7.8 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively. Both nations’ fundamental growth drivers are increasing labour productivity, urbanisation and the growth of capital stock. The IMF’s forecasts for developing Asian countries in 2008 and 2009 are 8.3 per cent and 7.1 per cent.

China’s inland provinces need infrastructure, and Beijing has announced a stimulus package of four trillion yuan (S$884.4 billion) by 2010. China is extending its railway network, rebuilding earthquake-damaged areas in Sichuan, increasing export tax rebates, lending more to small and medium-size enterprises and spending more on social welfare systems. To revive the housing market, it is reducing taxes on housing transactions and unwinding property-tightening measures introduced earlier to counter speculation. For first-time home buyers, the minimum down payment has been reduced from 30 per cent to 20 per cent, and banks are allowed to offer interest rates as low as 70 per cent of the standard lending rates for such mortgages. The demand for residential housing remains strong, and China’s construction companies are capable of meeting it.

Personal consumption in China should be encouraged; it is only 35 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with America’s 70 per cent. Beijing is introducing rural land reforms, increasing government funding for low-price housing and basic medical services, and reducing interest rates in order to boost domestic consumption. China is determined to grow by at least 8 per cent, to create enough jobs to sidestep large-scale unemployment and social unrest.

Shanghai and Guangdong, two major exporting provinces, are experiencing declines in export orders.

The 10 countries in the Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) have free trade agreements or comprehensive economic partnerships with China, India and Japan. Asean’s growth for 2009 is projected to be between 2 per cent and 5 per cent, depending on how heavily each country relies on exports to the US and the EU. Singapore, whose external trade is more than three times its GDP, will dig into its reserves and survive the downturn because of its economy’s strong fundamentals.

Intraregional linkages that have increased during the past two decades will help fuel growth. They will partially offset the reduced demand from the US, the EU and Japan, and will buffer eastern Asian countries against a severe recession.

China’s economy will continue to grow. Its leaders have stated that the best contribution they can make to offset the current crisis is to keep their economy growing. They can go beyond that by constructing positive policies and not shifting out of US assets or pushing exports via competitive devaluation of China’s currency. If China plays an active part in multilateral measures to help alleviate the global crisis, it will be seen as a responsible stakeholder whose rise will strengthen the world’s financial system. The signs for this are good. On Oct 21 in New York, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said: ‘It is clear that China accepts its responsibility as a major world economy that will work with the United States and other partners to ensure global economic stability.’

India’s foreign reserves – US$251 billion – are modest compared with China’s. India’s stock market is 50 per cent below its January levels. The government can cede needed infrastructure projects for roads, railways, container ports and airports to Korean, Japanese and other international companies, which would increase foreign investment in India. If party leaders can overcome interparty politicking when deciding on policies to strengthen their economy, India will be in a position to make a difference internationally. Its leaders have demonstrated that when India musters its resources for strategic projects, such as its moon-probe rocket, it can succeed.

But the health of the US economy is still a major factor in global growth. The economic policies of President-elect Barack Obama will determine how long the global economy takes to recover.

Mr Lee’s article first appeared in the issue of Forbes magazine dated Dec 8, 2008

Source : Business Times – 3 Dec 2008

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Yongnam secures $88m contract for Integrated Hub

Posted by luxuryasiahome on December 3, 2008

YONGNAM Holdings has secured an $88 million contract for the construction of the Integrated Civic, Cultural, Retail and Entertainment Hub (Integrated Hub) at Vista Xchange at one-north.

A structural steel contractor and specialist engineering solutions provider, Yongnam will supply and erect steelworks for the building structure.

This project, together with Yongnam’s recent contract win from the Marina Bay Sands Integrated Resort, has bumped up Yongnam’s current order book by $111.8 million, the company said.

Yongnam’s involvement in the building of the Integrated Hub will help to strengthen its brand name, and build on its portfolio of local and regional mega projects such as Suntec City, Fusionpolis, the Ion Orchard in Singapore, Dubai Metro Rail in Dubai, and the Delhi International Airport in India, said chief executive officer Seow Soon Yong.

‘Yongnam’s consistent involvement in such notable developments, including the Integrated Hub, further proves the confidence in our expertise in structural steelworks and specialist civil engineering solutions,’ he said.

Situated at one-north, the Integrated Hub is poised to be an iconic new landmark.

one-north is a 200-hectare development located at Buona Vista designed to provide an intellectually and creatively stimulating environment for creative minds to live, work, relax and learn.

Construction of the Integrated Hub will commence at the end of this month and is expected to be completed by January 2011.

Source : Business Times – 3 Dec 2008

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