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Prime rents poised to ease further

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

JLL sees more falls over next half year but rest of market should stay stable

THE surging rents in prime areas that have had expatriates screaming for the best part of a year look to be easing, with some condos already registering falls of up to 12 per cent.

The declines are expected to intensify over the next three to six months, reversing a trend that saw some rents double or treble during the property peak last year.

Consultant Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) said increased supply from newly built condominiums and a weakening economy are behind the projected prime rent slide, although rents in other parts of Singapore should stay largely stable.

Expats have also been voting with their feet and abandoning pricey prime areas and moving to fringe locations – and nudging rents there up a little in the process, said Dr Chua Yang Liang, the firm’s head of research (South-East Asia).

Rents in the East Coast area, for example, rose 1.4 per cent in the first quarter but are now tipped to grow at a slower pace or even stay unchanged.

This is in contrast to prime areas, where landlords are feeling the chill of the new economic headwinds.

For instance, at Cuscaden Residences in the Tanglin area, rentals have fallen 12 per cent, from $6.20 per sq ft (psf) a month in the fourth quarter of last year to $5.46 psf in the first quarter of this year, said JLL.

A 1,485 sq ft unit will now fetch about $8,100, down from $9,200 at the end of last year.

Over at Tanglin Park, rentals have fallen 3.1 per cent from $5.21 psf to $5.05 psf.

Islandwide, supply started creeping up from the third quarter of last year, said Dr Chua.

But not all owners are yet willing to lower their expectations, said market watchers.

‘The rental market is a lot slower than last year,’ said Ms Kavita Borglin, an agent with Premiere Realty, who said rents in prime areas will be hit by new supply, particularly smaller units.

‘The availability of one- to three-bedroom apartments has increased so rents have softened,’ she said.

At Robertson 100 in Robertson Quay, at least 10 two-bedroom flats are on the market but the owners were all reluctant to lower their asking rents of $5,000 to $6,000, she said.

Ms Borglin’s client, an expat with a rental budget of $4,500, eventually settled for a Newton area apartment.

She added that owners with large apartments of four bedrooms or more could still keep the same rents, as such large flats are still hard to come by.

JLL said Singapore’s rating as the 13th most expensive Asian city for expats, coupled with a slower hiring pace in the coming months, may lead to fewer leasing deals over the remainder of the year.

A lacklustre collective sale market and weakening housing prices will continue to hit sentiment in the non-landed rental home market, said Dr Chua.

Meanwhile, JLL said in a statement yesterday that it has put Goldhill Centre near Novena MRT station up for sale. The indicative price for the freehold commercial site is $315 million.

Source : Straits Times – 10 Jul 2008

Posted in General, Market Reports, Rental | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

Prime rents poised to ease further

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

JLL sees more falls over next half year but rest of market should stay stable

THE surging rents in prime areas that have had expatriates screaming for the best part of a year look to be easing, with some condos already registering falls of up to 12 per cent.

The declines are expected to intensify over the next three to six months, reversing a trend that saw some rents double or treble during the property peak last year.

Consultant Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) said increased supply from newly built condominiums and a weakening economy are behind the projected prime rent slide, although rents in other parts of Singapore should stay largely stable.

Expats have also been voting with their feet and abandoning pricey prime areas and moving to fringe locations – and nudging rents there up a little in the process, said Dr Chua Yang Liang, the firm’s head of research (South-East Asia).

Rents in the East Coast area, for example, rose 1.4 per cent in the first quarter but are now tipped to grow at a slower pace or even stay unchanged.

This is in contrast to prime areas, where landlords are feeling the chill of the new economic headwinds.

For instance, at Cuscaden Residences in the Tanglin area, rentals have fallen 12 per cent, from $6.20 per sq ft (psf) a month in the fourth quarter of last year to $5.46 psf in the first quarter of this year, said JLL.

A 1,485 sq ft unit will now fetch about $8,100, down from $9,200 at the end of last year.

Over at Tanglin Park, rentals have fallen 3.1 per cent from $5.21 psf to $5.05 psf.

Islandwide, supply started creeping up from the third quarter of last year, said Dr Chua.

But not all owners are yet willing to lower their expectations, said market watchers.

‘The rental market is a lot slower than last year,’ said Ms Kavita Borglin, an agent with Premiere Realty, who said rents in prime areas will be hit by new supply, particularly smaller units.

‘The availability of one- to three-bedroom apartments has increased so rents have softened,’ she said.

At Robertson 100 in Robertson Quay, at least 10 two-bedroom flats are on the market but the owners were all reluctant to lower their asking rents of $5,000 to $6,000, she said.

Ms Borglin’s client, an expat with a rental budget of $4,500, eventually settled for a Newton area apartment.

She added that owners with large apartments of four bedrooms or more could still keep the same rents, as such large flats are still hard to come by.

JLL said Singapore’s rating as the 13th most expensive Asian city for expats, coupled with a slower hiring pace in the coming months, may lead to fewer leasing deals over the remainder of the year.

A lacklustre collective sale market and weakening housing prices will continue to hit sentiment in the non-landed rental home market, said Dr Chua.

Meanwhile, JLL said in a statement yesterday that it has put Goldhill Centre near Novena MRT station up for sale. The indicative price for the freehold commercial site is $315 million.

Source : Straits Times – 10 Jul 2008

Posted in General, Market Reports, Rental | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

Prime rents poised to ease further

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

JLL sees more falls over next half year but rest of market should stay stable

THE surging rents in prime areas that have had expatriates screaming for the best part of a year look to be easing, with some condos already registering falls of up to 12 per cent.

The declines are expected to intensify over the next three to six months, reversing a trend that saw some rents double or treble during the property peak last year.

Consultant Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) said increased supply from newly built condominiums and a weakening economy are behind the projected prime rent slide, although rents in other parts of Singapore should stay largely stable.

Expats have also been voting with their feet and abandoning pricey prime areas and moving to fringe locations – and nudging rents there up a little in the process, said Dr Chua Yang Liang, the firm’s head of research (South-East Asia).

Rents in the East Coast area, for example, rose 1.4 per cent in the first quarter but are now tipped to grow at a slower pace or even stay unchanged.

This is in contrast to prime areas, where landlords are feeling the chill of the new economic headwinds.

For instance, at Cuscaden Residences in the Tanglin area, rentals have fallen 12 per cent, from $6.20 per sq ft (psf) a month in the fourth quarter of last year to $5.46 psf in the first quarter of this year, said JLL.

A 1,485 sq ft unit will now fetch about $8,100, down from $9,200 at the end of last year.

Over at Tanglin Park, rentals have fallen 3.1 per cent from $5.21 psf to $5.05 psf.

Islandwide, supply started creeping up from the third quarter of last year, said Dr Chua.

But not all owners are yet willing to lower their expectations, said market watchers.

‘The rental market is a lot slower than last year,’ said Ms Kavita Borglin, an agent with Premiere Realty, who said rents in prime areas will be hit by new supply, particularly smaller units.

‘The availability of one- to three-bedroom apartments has increased so rents have softened,’ she said.

At Robertson 100 in Robertson Quay, at least 10 two-bedroom flats are on the market but the owners were all reluctant to lower their asking rents of $5,000 to $6,000, she said.

Ms Borglin’s client, an expat with a rental budget of $4,500, eventually settled for a Newton area apartment.

She added that owners with large apartments of four bedrooms or more could still keep the same rents, as such large flats are still hard to come by.

JLL said Singapore’s rating as the 13th most expensive Asian city for expats, coupled with a slower hiring pace in the coming months, may lead to fewer leasing deals over the remainder of the year.

A lacklustre collective sale market and weakening housing prices will continue to hit sentiment in the non-landed rental home market, said Dr Chua.

Meanwhile, JLL said in a statement yesterday that it has put Goldhill Centre near Novena MRT station up for sale. The indicative price for the freehold commercial site is $315 million.

Source : Straits Times – 10 Jul 2008

Posted in General, Market Reports, Rental | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Prime rents poised to ease further

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

JLL sees more falls over next half year but rest of market should stay stable

THE surging rents in prime areas that have had expatriates screaming for the best part of a year look to be easing, with some condos already registering falls of up to 12 per cent.

The declines are expected to intensify over the next three to six months, reversing a trend that saw some rents double or treble during the property peak last year.

Consultant Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) said increased supply from newly built condominiums and a weakening economy are behind the projected prime rent slide, although rents in other parts of Singapore should stay largely stable.

Expats have also been voting with their feet and abandoning pricey prime areas and moving to fringe locations – and nudging rents there up a little in the process, said Dr Chua Yang Liang, the firm’s head of research (South-East Asia).

Rents in the East Coast area, for example, rose 1.4 per cent in the first quarter but are now tipped to grow at a slower pace or even stay unchanged.

This is in contrast to prime areas, where landlords are feeling the chill of the new economic headwinds.

For instance, at Cuscaden Residences in the Tanglin area, rentals have fallen 12 per cent, from $6.20 per sq ft (psf) a month in the fourth quarter of last year to $5.46 psf in the first quarter of this year, said JLL.

A 1,485 sq ft unit will now fetch about $8,100, down from $9,200 at the end of last year.

Over at Tanglin Park, rentals have fallen 3.1 per cent from $5.21 psf to $5.05 psf.

Islandwide, supply started creeping up from the third quarter of last year, said Dr Chua.

But not all owners are yet willing to lower their expectations, said market watchers.

‘The rental market is a lot slower than last year,’ said Ms Kavita Borglin, an agent with Premiere Realty, who said rents in prime areas will be hit by new supply, particularly smaller units.

‘The availability of one- to three-bedroom apartments has increased so rents have softened,’ she said.

At Robertson 100 in Robertson Quay, at least 10 two-bedroom flats are on the market but the owners were all reluctant to lower their asking rents of $5,000 to $6,000, she said.

Ms Borglin’s client, an expat with a rental budget of $4,500, eventually settled for a Newton area apartment.

She added that owners with large apartments of four bedrooms or more could still keep the same rents, as such large flats are still hard to come by.

JLL said Singapore’s rating as the 13th most expensive Asian city for expats, coupled with a slower hiring pace in the coming months, may lead to fewer leasing deals over the remainder of the year.

A lacklustre collective sale market and weakening housing prices will continue to hit sentiment in the non-landed rental home market, said Dr Chua.

Meanwhile, JLL said in a statement yesterday that it has put Goldhill Centre near Novena MRT station up for sale. The indicative price for the freehold commercial site is $315 million.

Source : Straits Times – 10 Jul 2008

Posted in General, Market Reports, Rental | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

Simon says: Home prices have hit floor

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

Head of property developer SC Global still bullish on the local real estate market

JUDGING from recent transactions, property prices appear to have hit or are near the floor, according to Mr Simon Cheong, the president of the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Singapore (Redas).

As evidence, Mr Cheong, the head of high-end property developer SC Global, points to recent transactions of luxury apartments at Nassim Park and Goodwood Residences, which went for nearly $3,000 psf and $2,800 psf respectively.

“The high-end is the leading indicator. Why? Now you see the sophisticated investor coming in – people who spend $10 million, $20 million, $30 million (on a property) – these guys are no fools you know,” he says noting that during the 1997 financial crisis luxury flats like those at Ardmore Park were selling for just $1,000 psf.

Even mid-class units at developments like those at Dakota, Clover by the Park and Livia are enjoying brisk sales.

“Nett nett, property is still a great performer in the mid to long term. For example, the stock market index in 1998 was 800 and today it is 2900. Property appreciation is actually comparable, if not better, if one factors in rentals received,” Mr Cheong says.

The property market is driven very much by sentiment, and not just by the laws of supply and demand – the “feel good” factor, he says.

According to Mr Cheong developers’ prices have fallen by 30 per cent in all sectors of the market since their peak last year, but are still double those before the sub-prime problem kicked in last August.

“The current situation is timely, as since 2005 the property market has been climbing relentlessly for eight straight quarters according to URA (Urban Redevelopment Authority) figures. So, it’s time it took a breather.

“We developers were getting concerned that it was climbing so fast. So the sub-prime crisis, in a way hit at the right time and took some of the steam off the market. In a way it came as a relief to developers who were afraid that the steep climb in prices could tempt the authorities to take measures to curb speculation,”Mr Cheong told Today.

He also pointed out that it was not in the interest of developers to see prices going up too fast: “There is no reason why developers would like to see an exuberant market and see the bubble burst.”

But he claims that his positive outlook for the property market is also driven by fundamentals as interest rates are at present so low and the inflation rate so high it does not make sense to keep your money in the bank.

“What do I do if I have a lot of money in my bank account earning 0.6-per-cent interest while inflation is 6 per cent or more, and my money gets smaller and smaller by the day?” he asked.

One answer is to put your money in property as in the long run it is a better hedge against inflation than equities.

Furthermore, property rentals currently provide yields of 2 to 4 per cent, again better than putting your money in the bank.

And there is plenty of money around for when Standard Chartered Bank, earlier this month offered a promotional deposit rate of 2.28 per cent, it was so swamped that it had to withdraw the offer in just two days.

Mr Cheong expects interest rates to remain low over the next two years or so.

The supply of properties is also not as high as many people think. He pointed to a recent Citibank report which said that the bank sees no oversupply of homes over the next two years.

The report estimated that only 60 per cent of the 30,000 units forecast by the URA, will be completed during this period as by end March there were 6,000 en bloc flats that had yet to be demolished.

For en blocs to return, prices will have to be double what they are now, especially with no plot ratio increase in the recent announcement of the Singapore Master Plan by URA, Mr Cheong said.

High construction costs have also resulted in many projects being delayed. With the many building projects going on – both by the private (including the integrated resort projects) and public sectors – and high material costs caused by worldwide demand, constructions costs will remain for some years, Mr Cheong said.

He pointed out at the same time that construction costs here are currently higher than those of Dubai or Hong Kong.

”It takes three months to tear a building down but three years to put them up. Once you have taken it down, supply is taken off immediately but to put that supply back it will take three years,” he said.

Construction costs are now double what they were a year ago, with high end building costs between $600 and 800 psf and at the low end from $300 to $350 psf.

Sometimes Singaporeans also do not realise that market here being relatively small, it would take less than 1 per cent of the available global funds to see the market run up. So, it is not unreasonable to expect a strong turnaround when the sentiment improves, Mr Cheong said.:

He added that Singapore has also become a global city and price comparisons of property were now benchmarked against cities like London, Hong Kong, Shanghai and New York rather than against historical prices here.

”And contrary to market perception, funding is not an issue, There is no shortage of funding for end purchasers as evidenced by various bank packages (for mortgage loans),” he noted.

”My advice to potential buyers is that if you do not have high exposure to the property market, it is an opportune time to consider property”, he said.

Source : Today – 10 Jul 2008

Posted in General, Market Reports | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Home price rebound could take time

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

Continued weakness comes amid caution caused by inflation and bleak outlook

RECENT developments in the local property market have sent conflicting signals to investors. Several developers have indicated willingness to delay launches as residential property prices show signs of weakness, while others are pointing to still-strong demand. Meanwhile, market data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has indicated that the pace of increase is slowing down. In fact, the second quarter increase is the slowest rate of increase since the third quarter of 2004.

Market analysts have also downgraded their ratings on property stocks in view of the slowing demand, with certain segments more susceptible to further downward price revisions. While the delay in property launches looks negative at first glance, it is actually a good move to regulate the supply of units coming onto the market and should not be viewed wholly as a negative move.

Residential property prices stayed resilient in the first quarter of 2008, with the property price index up 3.8 per cent from a quarter ago, but this eased to a growth of a mere 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, based on the latest URA flash estimate, pointing to likely weakness.

Transaction volumes have been declining since the second quarter of 2007, plunging to a low of 762 transactions in the first quarter of this year. Such a trend points towards an inevitable correction in prices as historically, a price correction would follow about one to five quarters after transaction volume has peaked in a rising property market.

A sharp recovery in transaction volume over the near-term may avert a price correction, but is unlikely to occur in view of present global woes resulting from record high oil prices and high inflationary fears.

First, foreign interest in local properties is waning, as foreign buyers turn cautious over subprime issues and the credit crunch. Secondly, the recent en bloc fever, which fuelled part of the demand for housing by the displacement of en bloc sellers, has slowed in recent months. Lastly, the withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme has taken out the speculative transactions in the property market, as seen from the declining number of subsale transactions.

I would also caution against using property as a hedge against inflation, as there is no conclusive evidence of the correlation between inflation and property prices. Properties are cyclical in nature and are subject to market sentiment. As such, inflationary pressure is unlikely to have any positive impact on property prices, as buyers are likely to exercise greater caution in light of the weakening sentiment in the property market.

The recent release of the sites under the Government Land Sales programme for the second half of this year further confirmed the weakening sentiment in the residential property sector. The number of residential sites under the confirmed list for the second half of this year has been halved, from eight sites released in the first half of this year to four sites planned in the second. Recent bids for government sites had also came in below market expectations, another sign of cautiousness among developers.

Going forward, we expect to seefurther weakness in residential property prices. Sentiment is likely to remain cautious against the backdrop of a weaker economic outlook, tighter credit market and rising inflation. This should deter buyers from spending on big ticket items. With the prevailing cautious market sentiment, and if prices trend lower, smaller developers with comparatively lower holding power are likely to offload their units onto the market to reduce gearings and holding costs.

The high-end segment of the property market is also likely to be at risk to price correction, as this segment has been the driving factor for the run-up in property prices since the beginning of 2006. With foreign investors turning wary, this could result in lower demand. For the mass market, a surge in launches in the first quarter of this year may have caused buyers to be more cautious, but we expect the take-up rate for mass market properties to move up once concern of over-supply eases. In addition, prices for the mass market segment have not moved up as rapidly as those for the high-end segment.

CARMEN LEE, head of research at OCBC Investment Research.

Source : Today – 10 Jul 2008

Posted in General, Market Reports | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Home price rebound could take time

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

Continued weakness comes amid caution caused by inflation and bleak outlook

RECENT developments in the local property market have sent conflicting signals to investors. Several developers have indicated willingness to delay launches as residential property prices show signs of weakness, while others are pointing to still-strong demand. Meanwhile, market data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has indicated that the pace of increase is slowing down. In fact, the second quarter increase is the slowest rate of increase since the third quarter of 2004.

Market analysts have also downgraded their ratings on property stocks in view of the slowing demand, with certain segments more susceptible to further downward price revisions. While the delay in property launches looks negative at first glance, it is actually a good move to regulate the supply of units coming onto the market and should not be viewed wholly as a negative move.

Residential property prices stayed resilient in the first quarter of 2008, with the property price index up 3.8 per cent from a quarter ago, but this eased to a growth of a mere 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, based on the latest URA flash estimate, pointing to likely weakness.

Transaction volumes have been declining since the second quarter of 2007, plunging to a low of 762 transactions in the first quarter of this year. Such a trend points towards an inevitable correction in prices as historically, a price correction would follow about one to five quarters after transaction volume has peaked in a rising property market.

A sharp recovery in transaction volume over the near-term may avert a price correction, but is unlikely to occur in view of present global woes resulting from record high oil prices and high inflationary fears.

First, foreign interest in local properties is waning, as foreign buyers turn cautious over subprime issues and the credit crunch. Secondly, the recent en bloc fever, which fuelled part of the demand for housing by the displacement of en bloc sellers, has slowed in recent months. Lastly, the withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme has taken out the speculative transactions in the property market, as seen from the declining number of subsale transactions.

I would also caution against using property as a hedge against inflation, as there is no conclusive evidence of the correlation between inflation and property prices. Properties are cyclical in nature and are subject to market sentiment. As such, inflationary pressure is unlikely to have any positive impact on property prices, as buyers are likely to exercise greater caution in light of the weakening sentiment in the property market.

The recent release of the sites under the Government Land Sales programme for the second half of this year further confirmed the weakening sentiment in the residential property sector. The number of residential sites under the confirmed list for the second half of this year has been halved, from eight sites released in the first half of this year to four sites planned in the second. Recent bids for government sites had also came in below market expectations, another sign of cautiousness among developers.

Going forward, we expect to seefurther weakness in residential property prices. Sentiment is likely to remain cautious against the backdrop of a weaker economic outlook, tighter credit market and rising inflation. This should deter buyers from spending on big ticket items. With the prevailing cautious market sentiment, and if prices trend lower, smaller developers with comparatively lower holding power are likely to offload their units onto the market to reduce gearings and holding costs.

The high-end segment of the property market is also likely to be at risk to price correction, as this segment has been the driving factor for the run-up in property prices since the beginning of 2006. With foreign investors turning wary, this could result in lower demand. For the mass market, a surge in launches in the first quarter of this year may have caused buyers to be more cautious, but we expect the take-up rate for mass market properties to move up once concern of over-supply eases. In addition, prices for the mass market segment have not moved up as rapidly as those for the high-end segment.

CARMEN LEE, head of research at OCBC Investment Research.

Source : Today – 10 Jul 2008

Posted in General, Market Reports | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Home price rebound could take time

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

Continued weakness comes amid caution caused by inflation and bleak outlook

RECENT developments in the local property market have sent conflicting signals to investors. Several developers have indicated willingness to delay launches as residential property prices show signs of weakness, while others are pointing to still-strong demand. Meanwhile, market data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has indicated that the pace of increase is slowing down. In fact, the second quarter increase is the slowest rate of increase since the third quarter of 2004.

Market analysts have also downgraded their ratings on property stocks in view of the slowing demand, with certain segments more susceptible to further downward price revisions. While the delay in property launches looks negative at first glance, it is actually a good move to regulate the supply of units coming onto the market and should not be viewed wholly as a negative move.

Residential property prices stayed resilient in the first quarter of 2008, with the property price index up 3.8 per cent from a quarter ago, but this eased to a growth of a mere 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, based on the latest URA flash estimate, pointing to likely weakness.

Transaction volumes have been declining since the second quarter of 2007, plunging to a low of 762 transactions in the first quarter of this year. Such a trend points towards an inevitable correction in prices as historically, a price correction would follow about one to five quarters after transaction volume has peaked in a rising property market.

A sharp recovery in transaction volume over the near-term may avert a price correction, but is unlikely to occur in view of present global woes resulting from record high oil prices and high inflationary fears.

First, foreign interest in local properties is waning, as foreign buyers turn cautious over subprime issues and the credit crunch. Secondly, the recent en bloc fever, which fuelled part of the demand for housing by the displacement of en bloc sellers, has slowed in recent months. Lastly, the withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme has taken out the speculative transactions in the property market, as seen from the declining number of subsale transactions.

I would also caution against using property as a hedge against inflation, as there is no conclusive evidence of the correlation between inflation and property prices. Properties are cyclical in nature and are subject to market sentiment. As such, inflationary pressure is unlikely to have any positive impact on property prices, as buyers are likely to exercise greater caution in light of the weakening sentiment in the property market.

The recent release of the sites under the Government Land Sales programme for the second half of this year further confirmed the weakening sentiment in the residential property sector. The number of residential sites under the confirmed list for the second half of this year has been halved, from eight sites released in the first half of this year to four sites planned in the second. Recent bids for government sites had also came in below market expectations, another sign of cautiousness among developers.

Going forward, we expect to seefurther weakness in residential property prices. Sentiment is likely to remain cautious against the backdrop of a weaker economic outlook, tighter credit market and rising inflation. This should deter buyers from spending on big ticket items. With the prevailing cautious market sentiment, and if prices trend lower, smaller developers with comparatively lower holding power are likely to offload their units onto the market to reduce gearings and holding costs.

The high-end segment of the property market is also likely to be at risk to price correction, as this segment has been the driving factor for the run-up in property prices since the beginning of 2006. With foreign investors turning wary, this could result in lower demand. For the mass market, a surge in launches in the first quarter of this year may have caused buyers to be more cautious, but we expect the take-up rate for mass market properties to move up once concern of over-supply eases. In addition, prices for the mass market segment have not moved up as rapidly as those for the high-end segment.

CARMEN LEE, head of research at OCBC Investment Research.

Source : Today – 10 Jul 2008

Posted in General, Market Reports | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Home price rebound could take time

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

Continued weakness comes amid caution caused by inflation and bleak outlook

RECENT developments in the local property market have sent conflicting signals to investors. Several developers have indicated willingness to delay launches as residential property prices show signs of weakness, while others are pointing to still-strong demand. Meanwhile, market data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has indicated that the pace of increase is slowing down. In fact, the second quarter increase is the slowest rate of increase since the third quarter of 2004.

Market analysts have also downgraded their ratings on property stocks in view of the slowing demand, with certain segments more susceptible to further downward price revisions. While the delay in property launches looks negative at first glance, it is actually a good move to regulate the supply of units coming onto the market and should not be viewed wholly as a negative move.

Residential property prices stayed resilient in the first quarter of 2008, with the property price index up 3.8 per cent from a quarter ago, but this eased to a growth of a mere 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, based on the latest URA flash estimate, pointing to likely weakness.

Transaction volumes have been declining since the second quarter of 2007, plunging to a low of 762 transactions in the first quarter of this year. Such a trend points towards an inevitable correction in prices as historically, a price correction would follow about one to five quarters after transaction volume has peaked in a rising property market.

A sharp recovery in transaction volume over the near-term may avert a price correction, but is unlikely to occur in view of present global woes resulting from record high oil prices and high inflationary fears.

First, foreign interest in local properties is waning, as foreign buyers turn cautious over subprime issues and the credit crunch. Secondly, the recent en bloc fever, which fuelled part of the demand for housing by the displacement of en bloc sellers, has slowed in recent months. Lastly, the withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme has taken out the speculative transactions in the property market, as seen from the declining number of subsale transactions.

I would also caution against using property as a hedge against inflation, as there is no conclusive evidence of the correlation between inflation and property prices. Properties are cyclical in nature and are subject to market sentiment. As such, inflationary pressure is unlikely to have any positive impact on property prices, as buyers are likely to exercise greater caution in light of the weakening sentiment in the property market.

The recent release of the sites under the Government Land Sales programme for the second half of this year further confirmed the weakening sentiment in the residential property sector. The number of residential sites under the confirmed list for the second half of this year has been halved, from eight sites released in the first half of this year to four sites planned in the second. Recent bids for government sites had also came in below market expectations, another sign of cautiousness among developers.

Going forward, we expect to seefurther weakness in residential property prices. Sentiment is likely to remain cautious against the backdrop of a weaker economic outlook, tighter credit market and rising inflation. This should deter buyers from spending on big ticket items. With the prevailing cautious market sentiment, and if prices trend lower, smaller developers with comparatively lower holding power are likely to offload their units onto the market to reduce gearings and holding costs.

The high-end segment of the property market is also likely to be at risk to price correction, as this segment has been the driving factor for the run-up in property prices since the beginning of 2006. With foreign investors turning wary, this could result in lower demand. For the mass market, a surge in launches in the first quarter of this year may have caused buyers to be more cautious, but we expect the take-up rate for mass market properties to move up once concern of over-supply eases. In addition, prices for the mass market segment have not moved up as rapidly as those for the high-end segment.

CARMEN LEE, head of research at OCBC Investment Research.

Source : Today – 10 Jul 2008

Posted in General, Market Reports | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Bay window loophole slammed shut by URA

Posted by luxuryasiahome on July 10, 2008

Developers will now have to include planter boxes, bay windows in GFA

Here’s some bad news for developers: a loophole that helped them sell in excess of the gross floor area (GFA) has been plugged.

Till now, bay windows and planter boxes, which often make up around 5 per cent of a condo’s saleable area, had been exempted from GFA calculations. But in providing them to buyers, developers had been charging buyers for them.

This exemption will no longer apply from Oct 7, according to a circular issued by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Monday.

The exemption has led to ‘unintended and undesirable consequences’ and ‘unwittingly shifted market behaviours and negated the objective of the GFA exemptions for these building features’, URA said in explaining why bay windows and planter boxes will no longer be exempted from GFA.

Explaining the impact of the new rules on residential developers, a property industry player said: ‘Developers’ profit margins will be reduced because they will no longer enjoy this benefit of not counting bay windows and planter boxes as part of their GFA and yet selling this space to home buyers. If the developers want to have these features, they will have to pay the full price since these will be included as GFA.’

The new rules apply to all residential developments – landed and non- landed – and are expected to lead to a rush of new development applications, especially from developers who have bought land recently.

URA said bay windows have been ‘found to have contributed significantly to the building bulk, affect the design of buildings and generally do not encourage energy efficiency’. ‘Often the provision of bay windows is intended mainly to increase the saleable strata area,’ it noted.

Planter boxes were introduced to provide ‘vertical greenery’ in condos and create ‘visual relief to our high-density living environment’. However, feedback and URA’s investigations have revealed extensive unauthorised conversions of planter boxes within residential units for use as a balcony space or an extension of the living room instead. The planning authority said it has also received feedback that condo owners are unhappy that they are not allowed to convert planter boxes – which are part of their strata space and which they paid for when they bought their unit – to other uses.

‘URA will leave it to the developers and building owners to decide if they wish to continue to provide bay windows and planter boxes for their residential developments so long as these building features are counted as GFA. The industry will have a free hand to design and provide these building features based on their commercial considerations as there will no longer be restrictions on the size of bay windows and planter boxes,’ URA said.

Planter boxes within non-residential developments (like hotels and business parks), as well as those located within the common areas of residential developments like sky terraces, will continue to be exempted from GFA as these areas are typically well-planted and maintained by the management corporation for the benefit of all occupants in a development.

Only formal development applications (which exclude outline applications) with a valid provisional permission issued before Oct 7 will continue to be evaluated under the old GFA guidelines. For approved developments, bay windows and planters will remain GFA-exempted until the buildings are redeveloped, URA added.

Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng had an alternative suggestion for URA. ‘Instead of just removing GFA exemption for bay windows and planters, URA could have let the exemption continue but require developers to specify and identify these features in their sales brochures so that buyers know exactly how much of their strata area is taken up by bay windows and planter boxes. Buyers can then decide whether these features are as attractive to them.’

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah observed that bay windows can be a useable area – for sitting, keeping books or displaying photo frames, for instance. ‘Planter boxes, on the other hand, often end up not being used for the purpose they were meant for,’ she added.

Summing up the change, a seasoned industry observer said: ‘This closes one loophole for developers. They’ve had a good run on it.’

Source : Business Times – 10 Jul 2008

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